Professor Timothy Snyder makes a sensible point in predicting ‘how the Russo-Ukrainian war will end’. The point is that it makes more sense to plan carefully for the scenario you want alongside other likely scenarios than to indulge in atomic and other fantasies with scenarios that have no clear outcome. The problem with his particular scenario – a more or less controlled implosion of Putin’s rule – posits only three principal actors: Russians, Ukrainians, and ‘the West’. As Talleyrand continues to insist, there are others who may see an important interest in keeping Putin’s house of cards standing, indefinitely. Careful scenario planning must take their interests into account and, if possible, bring them onside. If you liked this post from Talleyrand, why not share it? © 2022 Talleyrand |